FROM THE FRONTIER
A new panel is testing some of AI’s boldest claims. Here’s what they found.
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Will AI really replace human workers? Bold AI predictions tend to dominate headlines. Sam Altman believes AI could run entire companies. Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, thinks AI will eliminate half of all entry-level white-collar jobs. But will these claims actually materialize? If so, when? That’s one question that the Longitudinal Expert AI Panel (LEAP) hopes to answer.
LEAP: Measuring the pace of progress. LEAP is an in-depth monthly survey that polls both experts as well as the general public. The goal: To systematically measure AI’s expectations, progress, and impact using a three-step process: formulate testable hypotheses, survey experts, and track how predictions align with reality over time.
LEAP’s initial results are in. Most business leaders and experts agree: AI will have a major impact on the world. The first round of LEAP surveys showed that experts expect sizable societal effects from AI by 2040. Experts also assigned a 33% probability that AI will be a transformative technology that changes the course of human history — on par with the internet or printing press.
Where experts and business leaders disagree. Business leaders and experts disagree when it comes to AI’s impact on the workforce. While some executives predict widespread job loss from AI, the median expert projects 2% growth in white-collar employment attributable to AI. Same technology, very different expectations.
via Superhuman