AI with human-level intelligence is coming. But experts are split on the arrival date.
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Artificial general intelligence (AGI) is on its way, but not this year. In January, prediction platform Polymarket gave OpenAI a 35% chance of announcing AGI in 2025 — fairly good odds for such an immense breakthrough. Since then, that figure has dropped to just 2%. So what changed?
GPT-5’s August launch didn’t help. ChatGPT-5 was widely expected to be a landmark breakthrough that would inch us closer to AGI, but it largely fell short of those expectations. Instead of a pivotal leap forward, GPT-5 felt like an incremental update — prompting one prominent critic to call it “overdue, overhyped and underwhelming.” Still, those who work in the industry largely agree AGI remains on the roadmap.
Experts still expect AGI, they just can’t agree when. The AI 2027 report, led by ex-OpenAI researcher Daniel Kokotajlo, originally forecasted AGI by 2027 but has since pushed the timeline to around 2030. Metaculus, a well-regarded forecasting platform, projects August 2033. The range is wide, but the direction is clear: it’s coming.
Here’s the bigger picture. Just four years ago, Metaculus forecasters predicted AGI wouldn’t arrive for another 50 years. Now most experts expect it within a few years. The window has collapsed dramatically, and with it, the time society has to prepare.